Have the Conservatives learnt nothing from the Iraq war? John Howard gave President Bush a blank cheque on Iraq - you never give the Americans a blank cheque before the event. There are multiple scenarios which could arise from the Korean Peninsula - and for Mr Turnbull to say Australia would automatically become militarily involved in the event of a North Korean attack is irresponsible in terms of our core national security interests. http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/we-have-entered-into-a-difficult-and-dangerous-time/8802920
What would a “grand bargain” look like between China and the US on the future of the Korean Peninsula? I spoke with CNBC Squawk Box earlier: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/08/11/kevin-rudd-how-to-defuse-the-korean-crisis.html
Important piece today in China’s unofficial newspaper the Global Times on the response to any US attack on North Korea. Spoke with the BBC World Service today: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05c49jc
There is a growing danger we are slowly sleepwalking into war on the Korean Peninsula. There is a way through all this. It requires a new diplomacy between China and the US around eliminating nuclear weapons in North Korea and a possible Grand Bargain on future of the Korean Peninsula more generally. My reflections in today's Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/91a91d40-7dd8-11e7-ab01-a13271d1ee9c
I remain proud of my government's actions to protect the Australian economy and hundreds of thousands of jobs during the global recession nearly ten years ago. Australia stood alone as the only advanced economy not to fall into recession. New research from The Australia Institute reveals that most Australians are also proud and have strong positive views on my government's overall response to the GFC. http://www.tai.org.au/content/global-financial-crisis-what-australians-think-10-years
I see the Murdoch media in Queensland are gearing up for their usual role in the next QLD election as the third member of the Coalition - together with the Liberals and the Nationals. Only the #Courier Fail could run a headline like this when the poll has the Labor Premier on 39% versus Coalition Leader on 27%; the Labor Leader as preferred Premier by 42% versus 30%; the Labor Party at 51% versus Coalition 49%. The Courier Fail's " balance and objectivity" during the two previous state elections, in defence of Campbell Newman and the demonisation of Anna Bligh, was worthy of the Soviet Union's Pravda. Nothing changes with this lot. A pity. The decomposition of a once great Queensland paper.
The record of Turnbull's conversation with Trump is deeply damaging to Turnbull's credibility. Discussed the implications with CNN International this morning. http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2017/08/03/exp-style-of-diplomacy-questioned-between-u-s-and-australia.cnn
More bile from my good friends in Murdoch-land. But then again it is Murdoch, which means it no longer pretends to be journalism. Here's a question for fair and balanced journalism: when did Murdoch last launch a bucket of bile against John Winston Howard?
Hi Folks. Some of you may have seen on Twitter that I've finally written a book about my own time in political life. It's called "Not for the Faint-Hearted." Out 24 October published by Pan Macmillan Australia. Here're five minutes from me on what the book is all about. I'll follow up with a session on Facebook Live at 7 am this Thursday Australian Eastern Time. That's 5pm Wednesday New York time. Looking forward to it.
Given North Korean developments, Australia would be well advised to begin analysing ballistic missile defence needs, available technologies and possible deployment feasibility for northern Australia. Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-should-consider-missile-defence-to-counter-north-korea-kevin-rudd-20170707-gx6t0u.html
I'm proud to have been a co-founder of the #G20 Summit. G20 is core to global financial and economic decision-making. My interview on CNBC Squawk Box here: http://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/07/07/kevin-rudd-on-g-20-agenda-expectations.html?play=1
The global risk from North Korea's nuclear program is increasing. The challenge is whether President Trump and President Xi can agree new Chinese measures on North Korea at this week's G20. My interview on Bloomberg Politics here: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/videos/2017-07-05/how-north-korea-s-rocket-test-changed-geopolitics-video
I'm worried about where US-China relations is now headed on North Korea. And not just North Korea. South China Sea. Tariff war. And globally, on US-Russia, as well as the Gulf. A few observations on some key turning points on global geo-political and economic risk.
It’s in America’s strategic and economic interests for President Trump to build on Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Washington and strengthen US-India ties. India has not been on the Trump Administration’s radar for the first five months. It’s time that it was. This is a relationship which the Trump Administration should be able to make work. Common strategic interests are large, including Afghanistan and counter-terrorism. As the Indian economy grows, it provides new markets for the United States if better trade and investment can be had. There’s a thorny visa question on H1-Bs, which is top of the pops in India. If the Trump Administration tries to roll that back there will be hell to pay. Also, it is neither in US nor global interests for President Trump to suggest that Prime Minister Modi should ease off on Indian actions on climate change. It was hard to get India to the table for Paris in 2015. Indelicate handling of this with Modi would not be helpful for the planet.
Thoughts of Mei Mei Volume 8: When I read about the state of Australian politics, I feel stressed. When I read about the state of American politics, I feel stressed. There are two responses to stress: a) food. Or b) Sleep. The Mei Mei solution is more efficient - to combine both. MM
Thoughts of Mei Mei Volume 7 : One of the deep wisdoms of living in contemporary America is that if you live in the household of a foreigner, even an Australian, its best just to do your best to just blend in. Qing Qing and I have been practicing camouflage techniques in the back yard. But here's the rub: if we go to Australia, we're buggered too because we won't pass Dutton's new Citizenship Test for non- Aryans like us. And advice would be appreciated. Signed : Distressed.
Some in the US Administration seem to be puzzled by the volume of global reaction to the decision to walk away from the #ParisAgreement on climate change. They don’t seem to understand that by its very nature, this decision is not just an American decision. It affects the entire planet. And that’s because the US is the world’s second largest polluter. That’s why people increasingly see diplomacy pushed to one side and the US position increasingly directly attacked by friends, allies and foes alike. In the meantime, the international community should unite around Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel's leadership on climate change. In the US, state governors, municipal leaders and corporate leaders should seize the initiative. Because if they don’t, ultimately shareholders and institutional investors will direct companies to change their investments in major greenhouse gas emitting industries as a matter of urgency. Watch my interview with Hala Gorani on CNN International here: http://snpy.tv/2qJ5665
Given US decision on climate, US state and city governments and corporations must now fill the gap. State governments with powers of regulation can do much. City governments in terms of public transport energy sources can do much. But the real kicker here lies with what shareholders and institutional investors now do with major American corporations enforcing sustained change in energy purchasing policies. Here's my interview on BBC News earlier today.
Those concerned about the possibility of a future US-China war need to read Graham Allison’s new book, “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?”. I spent an hour this morning in conversation with Graham, former head of the Kennedy School, now head of Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for International Relations. Graham has worked for previous US administrations, but he’s a first class scholar as well. His major work in 1971 on the Cuban Missile Crisis, "Essence of Decision", remains a classic of the era. It’s about how to manage great power relations at a time of extraordinary crisis. That’s why this new book that he’s put out is a must-read. It is not just a bit of exotica in the foreign policy debate. This is core stuff. Can these two thousand-pound gorillas actually find a way through when history seems to be stacked against them? So not just for the nerds among you, but for other folks as well, have a listen to this extraordinary guy in my discussion with him this morning here at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York: http://asiasociety.org/new-york/events/china-and-us-destined-war
Thoughts of Mei Mei Volume 6. I have just looked at the flood maps for Manhattan in the NewYork Times in the event of the melting of the Antarctic ice cap. Sea levels up 6 metres. So I figured that the future of Manhattan real estate is not just location, location, location. It's elevation, elevation, elevation. And I'm not moving from my perch atop my scratching stand until Turnbull pulls his finger out on carbon pricing. MM